Bias

Confirmation and Expectation Bias

Confirmation and expectation bias are cognitive tendencies that can significantly impact decision-making and situational awareness in aviation. Understanding these biases and their effects is essential for pilots to make sound decisions and maintain safety during flight operations.

Understanding Confirmation Bias

Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek, interpret, and remember information in a way that confirms preexisting beliefs or expectations. In aviation, this can lead pilots to disregard or minimize information that contradicts their assumptions. For example, if a pilot believes the weather conditions are favorable for landing, they may overlook or downplay reports of deteriorating visibility.

This bias is particularly dangerous in high-stakes environments, where decisions must often be made quickly and accurately. It can cause pilots to misinterpret cockpit instruments, ATC instructions, or other situational cues. To mitigate confirmation bias, pilots should remain open to new information, continually cross-check data, and be willing to revise their plans as necessary.

Understanding Expectation Bias

Expectation bias occurs when a pilot’s expectations influence their perception, causing them to interpret information in a way that aligns with what they expect to happen. This can be particularly dangerous in dynamic flight environments where quick and accurate decision-making is essential.

A common example of expectation bias involves taxi instructions. Suppose a pilot frequently operates at a particular airport and is accustomed to receiving the same taxi clearance to the runway. One day, however, due to changes in traffic flow, the controller issues a different taxi instruction. The pilot, expecting the usual clearance, mishears or misinterprets the instruction and begins taxiing in the wrong direction. This type of incident can lead to runway/taxiway incursions and other ground safety hazards.

To mitigate expectation bias, pilots should practice active listening and read back all clearances to ensure understanding. Visualizing the taxi route using airport diagrams and maintaining situational awareness can also help pilots stay aligned with ATC instructions. Additionally, using standard call-and-response procedures and verifying instructions with crew members can further reduce the risk of expectation bias.

More Examples of Bias in Aviation

1. Instrument Misinterpretation: A pilot might misread an altimeter or attitude indicator if they expect it to show a particular reading. Confirmation bias can prevent them from recognizing the actual, potentially hazardous reading.

2. Visual Expectations: During an instrument approach, a pilot might expect to see a specific runway environment. If the actual visual cues differ due to lighting conditions or weather, expectation bias may lead them to ignore these discrepancies, increasing the risk of a controlled flight into terrain (CFIT) accident

3. Checklist Oversight: Pilots may rush through checklists, assuming all systems are functioning normally. This can result in missed warnings or improper configurations.

Mitigating Confirmation and Expectation Bias

Pilots can reduce the influence of these biases by adopting the following strategies:

• Maintain Situational Awareness: Continuously assess and reassess the flight environment, incorporating all available data.

• Challenge Assumptions: Actively question whether beliefs and expectations align with actual conditions.

• Utilize Crew Resource Management (CRM): Encourage open communication and cross-verification among crew members.

• Practice Scenario-Based Training: Engage in exercises that simulate unexpected situations, fostering adaptability and resilience.

• Apply the DECIDE Model: Use a structured decision-making process to evaluate options and make objective choices.

Understanding confirmation and expectation bias is critical for safe flight operations. By remaining vigilant, verifying information, and questioning assumptions, pilots can effectively mitigate the risks associated with these cognitive biases. Continuous training and a disciplined approach to decision-making are key to enhancing safety and maintaining situational awareness in aviation.